In These New Times

A new paradigm for a post-imperial world

Posts Tagged ‘Laboratoire européen d’anticipation politique LEAP’

Global Systemic Crisis: Towards a Renaissance in European political and economic integration

Posted by seumasach on February 19, 2012

Global Economic Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB) no 62

Global Research

18th February, 2012

As anticipated by LEAP/E2020, the fear largely fed by the City of London and Wall Street of a Eurozone break-up over the Greek debt crisis proved unfounded.

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2012: The year of the world’s great geopolitical swing

Posted by seumasach on January 21, 2012

We always post GEAP’s public announcement with which we are once again largely concurrent, and we strongly recommend their website
GEAB no.61
16th January, 2012
This GEAB issue makes it six years that the LEAP/E2020 team have shared their anticipations with their subscribers and readers of their public briefing on the development of the global systemic crisis each month. And, for the first time, in the January issue which presents a summary of our anticipations for the year to come, our team anticipates a year which will not result solely in a worsening of the world crisis but which will also be characterized by the emergence of the first constructive elements of the “world after the crisis” to use Franck Biancheri’s phrase from his book « The World Crisis: The Path to the World Afterwards ».

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From the non-dislocation of Euroland to the dislocation of the United Kingdom

Posted by seumasach on December 18, 2011

USA 2012/2016: An insolvent and ungovernable country
16th December, 2011
As announced in previous GEABs, in this issue our team presents its anticipations on the changes in the United States for the period 2012-2016. This country, the epicentre of the global systemic crisis and pillar of the international system since 1945, will go through a particularly tragic in its history during these five years. Already insolvent it will become ungovernable bringing about, for Americans and those who depend on the United States violent and destructive economic, financial, monetary, geopolitical and social shocks. If the United States today is already very different from the “super-power” of 2006, the year the first GEAB was published, announcing the global systemic crisis and the end of the all-powerful US, the changes we anticipate for the 2012-2016 period are even more important, and will radically transform the country’s institutional system, its social fabric and its economic and financial weight. 

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Public announcement GEAB N°59-Global systemic crisis

Posted by seumasach on December 12, 2011

Global systemic crisis: 30,000 billion US dollars in ghost assets will disappear by early 2013 / The crisis enters a phase of widespread discounting of Western public debt

LEAP 2020

16th November, 2011

As we come to the end of the second half of 2011, it is evident that 15,000 billion in ghost assets have gone up in smoke since last July, just as was anticipated by LEAP/E2020 (GEAB N°56 ). And, according to our team, this process figures to continue at the same rate throughout the year to come. Indeed we estimate that, with the introduction of a 50% discount on Greek government debt, the global systemic crisis has entered a new phase: that of the generalized discount on Western public debt and its corollary, the fragmentation of the global financial markets. Our team believes that 2012 will bring an average discount of 30% of total Western public debt (1), plus an equivalent amount in loss of assets from the balance sheets of worldwide financial institutions. Specifically, LEAP/E2020 anticipates the loss of 30,000 billion ghost assets by early 2013 (2), with an acceleration in 2012 of the partitioning process of the global financial market (3) into three increasingly disconnected currency areas: Dollar, Euro, and Yuan. These two phenomena feed into each other. They will also be the cause of a sharp decline of 30% on the part of US currency in 2012 (4), as we announced last April (GEAB N°54 ), which will occur amidst a sharp reduction in demand for the US dollar and the worsening of the US governmental debt crisis. The end of 2011 will therefore see, as anticipated, the trigger of the European debt crisis detonating a US bomb.

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Une Europe allemande?

Posted by seumasach on November 27, 2011

Derrière les plans d’austérité, le modèle allemand triomphe. Berlin assoit son leadership au fil de la crise et préside à l’intégration de l’Europe.

Fabrice Delaye et Myret Zaki


16th November, 2011

L’Allemagne est en train de réaliser, avec la crise de l’euro, ce qu’elle n’a pas pu faire avec deux guerres.» Provocatrice et un brin excessive, cette remarque lancée récemment par un grand banquier rappelle que la pression des marchés aboutit, en définitive, à plus d’intégration de la zone euro, sous leadership allemand. Sous la contrainte de l’euro, l’unification du continent autour d’un Euroland, excluant les Britanniques, apparaît comme la seule voie possible pour éviter un éclatement de la monnaie unique. Pour Michael Hüther, directeur de l’Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft de Cologne, «les politiciens européens ont compris le besoin de cette discipline. Le cas est similaire à celui des années 1980, quand la plupart des pays ont réalisé qu’ils ne pouvaient pas résoudre leurs problèmes par des dévaluations systématiques vis-à-vis du mark.» La solution est passée alors par plus d’Europe. «Au lieu de la finlandisation annoncée, on a vu un président socialiste français relancer, aux côtés de l’Allemagne, la construction européenne, du marché unique à Maastricht», rappelle Franck Biancheri, directeur du Laboratoire européen d’anticipation politique (LEAP).

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