“For days the US has held back, refusing to reveal its position – even to its allies”

Mark Mardell, BBC North American editor

They’ve been waiting to see which way the wind is blowing. Now we have reached what looks like a turning point: opposition are using helicopters, tanks and planes from forces which have defected. Aljazeera reports:

Medical sources in Misurata said that at least 80 members of Gaddafi’s forces were killed during yesterday’s fighting.

and that

in Benghazi, opposition protesters are buoyed by news that fighters in a nearby town have beaten back an offensive by Gaddafi’s forces. While some in the city are apprehensive that the war may still come to their door step, they remain defiant, vowing to fight on to defeat Gaddafi’s troops.

Major General Abdul-Fattah Younis has given an optimistic assessment of the revolution’s military position.

It doesn’t look at all certain, as most media have reported, that Gaddafi’s forces are winning.

Time then for the B plan,US/NATO intervention. Unfortunately, the revolutionary leadership. or part of it, has been calling for this move which will steal the thunder of the revolution’s triumph.

BBC

17th March, 2011

Libyan rebels have deployed tanks, artillery and a helicopter for the first time to repel an attack by pro-Gaddafi forces on the key town of Ajdabiya, the BBC understands.

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So, which is it? Are Gaddafi’s forces bogged down or our they on an unstoppable course to retake Benghazi? My take is that they are bogged down and that time is not on their side. If this is true London and Washington will be worried- they want the Arab revolution crushed here and now right across the Arab world. On the other hand they want to prepare intervention if his demise is seen as inevitable in order to have some influence on the post-Gaddafi set up. The pretext for that would be an imminent Gaddafi victory. The media chorus announcing the collapse of the revolution could therefore mean the exact opposite.

Irish Sun

16th March, 2011

Muammar Gaddafi’s forces were bogged down in a battle for control of Libya’s northern cities, with little progress made Wednesday, despite the anti-government forces reporting a number of rebel casualties.

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Boston.com

15th March, 2011

Moammar Khadafy’s warplanes, artillery, and mortar shells can control huge swaths of territory by day, including oil ports, rebel supply routes, and even hostile towns. But rebels say antigovernment forces can still return in darkness to take advantage of Khadafy’s thin supply lines and overstretched ground troops.

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