In These New Times

A new paradigm for a post-imperial world

Posts Tagged ‘bond bubble’

The global credit market Is now a lit powderkeg

Posted by seumasach on June 29, 2015

….And Markets Are Totally Unprepared

Investment Watch Blog

26th June, 2015

The financial markets have had a bit of a tough time going anywhere this year.

The S&P 500 has been caught in a 6% trading band all year, capped on the upside by a 3% gain and on the downside by a 3% price loss. It has been a back-and-forth flurry while the stock market up to this point has simply marked time.

We’ve seen a bit of the same in the bond market: after rising 3.5% in the first month of the year, the ten year Treasury bond has given away its year-to-date gains and then some.

2015 stands in relative contrast to largely upward stock and bond market movement over the past three years.  What’s different this year and what are the risks to investment outcomes ahead?

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Fed tantrum sets off biggest exodus from emerging markets since 2008

Posted by seumasach on June 13, 2015


12th June, 2015

Investors are withdrawing money from emerging markets at the fastest rate since the global financial crisis, raising the risk of a ‘sudden stop’ in capital flows as the US Federal Reserve prepares to turn off the spigot of cheap dollar liquidity.

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Bond exodus accelerates

Posted by seumasach on August 21, 2013

“If the Fed truly starts to ‘taper’ and fund investors continue to decide that they do not want to buy bonds at ridiculously low yields any longer, who will be left to buy all the debt that the U.S. government and corporate America need to sell at low rates,” he said.

Bond exodus accelerates as yields creep nearer 3%


19th August

Outflows from U.S. bond mutual funds and exchange traded funds has accelerated in August, according to a new report by TrimTabs, as fears grow of the threat that rising yields pose for the U.S. economy.

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Mispricing risk

Posted by seumasach on July 8, 2013

How does it work when the “Masters of the Universe” – having accumulated Trillions of assets under management by adeptly playing a most-protracted market bubble – find themselves on the wrong side of rapidly moving markets? 

Doug Noland

Asia Times

8th June, 2013

Bonds have been taken out to the woodshed, again.

US bonds were crushed on Friday on the back of stronger-than-expected payroll data.

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Rising bond yields—This is just the start

Posted by seumasach on January 10, 2013


8th January, 2013

Brighter economic prospects, diminishing fears about a U.S. fiscal crisis and the idea that the beginning of the end is in sight for a period of ultra-easy monetary policy have sent government bond yields racing higher at the start of the year.

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‘No downgrade’: ratings agencies reaffirm US outlook

Posted by seumasach on November 23, 2011

Who could doubt that we live in a world where political power overrides economics. So it transpires that the fact that the US is manifestly incapable of dealing with its debt problem has no real significance- all the focus remains on the euro. The rating agencies and the world’s media obligingly agree to overlook America’s problems.

The Age

22nd November, 2011

Rating agencies Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s said on Monday there will no immediate downgrade of their credit ratings on the United States due to the failure of a congressional “super committee” to reach an agreement on debt reduction.

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USTBonds: the monster spleen

Posted by seumasach on October 5, 2011












Jim Willie

Gold Seek

4th October, 2011 


The USTreasury Bond rally over the last few months has been celebrated. Some call it a contradiction of the Standard & Poors debt downgrade of USGovt debt. Some hail the rally as proof that the USDollar remains respected as global reserve currency. Some regard it as a sign of bond market health in general. Some claim the US remains the safe haven. These are all errant views to the extreme, comments from cheer leaders to a system in deep deterioration, distractions from reality. The United States is stuck in a powerful recession, its huge federal deficits set to expand further, the fiscal austerity to be sacrificed, the turmoil in Europe rendering the US panorama more alluring and cute. The USTBond is in strong rally mode because theUnited States is in the process of systemic failure, leading ultimately to some form of official debt default. The Greek Govt Bond yield rises from its fractured insolvent ruined status. The USTreasury Bond yield falls from its fractured insolvent ruined status also. It is a Black Hole, attracting funds from productive chambers of the USEconomy and pulling them into the dark place loaded with deficits, defaulted debts, and decay of capital. Let us not celebrate the USTBond rally. Instead, work to end it before the expanding spleen removes all the blood from the body economic. The organ serves as a reservoir, whose size must be contained. Unfortunately, important factors prevent the bond rally from doing anything but consuming the entire nation and confiscating its wealth.









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Skip the Happy Talk- This Depression is just beginning

Posted by smeddum on August 3, 2009

Skip the Happy Talk
This Depression is just beginning

By Mike Whitney

August 03, 2009 “Information Clearing House” — Too bad Pulitzers aren’t handed out for blog-entries. This year’s award would go to Zero Hedge for its “The ‘Money on the Sidelines’ Fallacy” post. This short entry shows why the economy will continue its downward slide and why the US consumer will not get off the mat and resume spending as he has in the past. The fact is the Net Wealth of US Households has “declined from a peak of $22 trillion to just under $12 trillion in early March.” Read the rest of this entry »

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China fears bond crisis as it slams quantitative easing

Posted by smeddum on May 7, 2009

China fears bond crisis as it slams quantitative easing
China has given its clearest warning to date that emergency monetary stimulus by Western governments risks setting off worldwide inflation and undermining global bond markets.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
07 May 2009

“A policy mistake made by some major central bank may bring inflation risks to the whole world,” said the People’s Central Bank in its quarterly report.
“As more and more economies are adopting unconventional monetary policies, such as quantitative easing (QE), major currencies’ devaluation risks may rise,” it said. The bank fears a “big consolidation” in the bond markets, clearly anxious that interest yields will surge as western states try to exit their QE experiment.

Simon Derrick, currency chief at the Bank of New York Mellon, said the report is the latest sign that China is losing patience with the US and aims to diversify part its $1.95 trillion (£1.3 trillion) foreign reserves away from US Treasuries and other dollar securities. Read the rest of this entry »

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Fed needs to double balance sheet: PIMCO

Posted by smeddum on March 27, 2009

By Faith Hung
Thu Mar 26,
TAIPEI (Reuters) – Bond giant Pacific Investment Management Co said the Federal Reserve needs to double its balance sheet up to $6 trillion to replace the amount of wealth destroyed in the United States, an executive said on Thursday. Read the rest of this entry »

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U.S. Treasury Bonds Heading for Day of Reckoning

Posted by smeddum on March 27, 2009

Mar 27, 2009
Market Oracle
Mike Larson writes: The U.K. Treasury held a bond auction on Wednesday morning. On the offer were 1.75 billion pounds ($2.55 billion ) worth of 40-year “Gilts” — the U.K. equivalent of U.S. Treasuries. There was just one problem …

Buyers went on strike! They offered to purchase just 1.63 billion pounds ($2.37 billion) of debt. Read the rest of this entry »

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