“For days the US has held back, refusing to reveal its position – even to its allies”

Mark Mardell, BBC North American editor

They’ve been waiting to see which way the wind is blowing. Now we have reached what looks like a turning point: opposition are using helicopters, tanks and planes from forces which have defected. Aljazeera reports:

Medical sources in Misurata said that at least 80 members of Gaddafi’s forces were killed during yesterday’s fighting.

and that

in Benghazi, opposition protesters are buoyed by news that fighters in a nearby town have beaten back an offensive by Gaddafi’s forces. While some in the city are apprehensive that the war may still come to their door step, they remain defiant, vowing to fight on to defeat Gaddafi’s troops.

Major General Abdul-Fattah Younis has given an optimistic assessment of the revolution’s military position.

It doesn’t look at all certain, as most media have reported, that Gaddafi’s forces are winning.

Time then for the B plan,US/NATO intervention. Unfortunately, the revolutionary leadership. or part of it, has been calling for this move which will steal the thunder of the revolution’s triumph.

BBC

17th March, 2011

Libyan rebels have deployed tanks, artillery and a helicopter for the first time to repel an attack by pro-Gaddafi forces on the key town of Ajdabiya, the BBC understands.

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So, which is it? Are Gaddafi’s forces bogged down or our they on an unstoppable course to retake Benghazi? My take is that they are bogged down and that time is not on their side. If this is true London and Washington will be worried- they want the Arab revolution crushed here and now right across the Arab world. On the other hand they want to prepare intervention if his demise is seen as inevitable in order to have some influence on the post-Gaddafi set up. The pretext for that would be an imminent Gaddafi victory. The media chorus announcing the collapse of the revolution could therefore mean the exact opposite.

Irish Sun

16th March, 2011

Muammar Gaddafi’s forces were bogged down in a battle for control of Libya’s northern cities, with little progress made Wednesday, despite the anti-government forces reporting a number of rebel casualties.

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Boston.com

15th March, 2011

Moammar Khadafy’s warplanes, artillery, and mortar shells can control huge swaths of territory by day, including oil ports, rebel supply routes, and even hostile towns. But rebels say antigovernment forces can still return in darkness to take advantage of Khadafy’s thin supply lines and overstretched ground troops.

Read full article here

En route to Washington after a weekend trip to Bahrain, Defense Secretary Robert Gates told reporters Monday that the logistical challenges of enforcing a no-fly zone over Libya could be overcome. “If we are directed to impose a no-fly zone, we have the resources to do it,” he said. “The question is whether it’s a wise thing to do. And that’s the discussion that’s going at a political level.”

If Gaddafi is losing it’s “a wise thing to do”- that way they get some leverage with the new government

CNN

14th March, 2011

Rebels appeared Monday to have slowed the eastward advance of Libyan government forces toward Benghazi at the town of al-Brega.

But it was not clear late in the day who controlled al-Brega, which contains a large oil refinery and natural gas plant, said CNN’s Ben Wedeman, reporting from Benghazi, which is about two hours away. Meanwhile, government planes carried out air raids 40 minutes from al-Brega, in the town of Ajdabiya.

CNN was not able to reach the front lines Monday.

For the first time since violence erupted last month, forces opposed to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi did not allow members of the news media to go forward. They expressed concern that coverage from the rebel side of the lines could provide intelligence to government forces about the ragtag rebel forces’ tactics, or lack thereof.

Life in Benghazi appeared calm on the surface: stores were open and people went about their business. But some residents expressed an underlying fear that Gadhafi appeared to have gained the upper hand and was advancing his military forward as much of the rest of the world focused on the catastrophe in Japan.

Some expressed fear that Gadhafi may seek to block roads leading to Benghazi and other coastal cities, then lay siege to them. Some worried that, if Gadhafi reasserts control of those cities in eastern Libya that led the revolt against his rule, he might carry out bloody reprisals.

Forces loyal to Gadhafi have been fighting to recapture towns from the rebels since the uprising began last month.

En route to Washington after a weekend trip to Bahrain, Defense Secretary Robert Gates told reporters Monday that the logistical challenges of enforcing a no-fly zone over Libya could be overcome. “If we are directed to impose a no-fly zone, we have the resources to do it,” he said. “The question is whether it’s a wise thing to do. And that’s the discussion that’s going at a political level.”

The Arab League voted Saturday to back a no-fly zone to protect the civilian population.

The Libyan foreign ministry has denounced the league’s move, calling it a “flagrant action against its charter,” according to state TV Sunday. It also reported that the ministry would welcome the arrival of a fact-finding mission sent by some African nations.

The White House has cheered the league’s announcements and stressed it will continue to pressure Gadhafi, support the opposition and prepare for “all contingencies.”

Western powers have said any action by the international community, including a no-fly zone, would have to have regional support and a clear mandate from the United Nations.

But, though diplomatic efforts were continuing, there was no immediate indication that such a mandate was in the offing. The U.N. special envoy to Libya, Abdul Ilah Al-Khatib, arrived in Tripoli on Monday, “the first day of a visit aimed at helping to stop hostilities in the North African nation and ensuring that civilians are protected,” according to U.N. spokeswoman Anne Siddall.

Al-Khatib met with Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa, reiterating international calls for an end to the violence. Al-Khatib was assured by senior Libyan government officials that they “would fully cooperate with the Commission of Inquiry recently authorized by the U.N. Security Council,” Siddall said.

Before his visit, Al-Khatib met Friday with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. In a statement released by his spokesman, the secretary-general said his message on Libya “has been strong and consistent. The violence must stop. Humanitarian aid must get to those in need. Those responsible for violence against civilians will be held accountable. A peaceful resolution must be found.”

Libya’s National Oil Corporation, meanwhile, said all ports are safe and urged companies to resume oil exports, state TV reported.

If Gadaffi’s advance really is stalling look out for the “no-fly zone” being back on the table- the West won’t stand by if Gaddafi is losing. This is where control of information is so important: if the uprising is winning the media will portray their situation as hopeless in order to justify intervention and play a part in Gaddafi’s overthrow giving them some leverage in the post-Gadaffi regime.

CS Monitor

14th March, 2011

On Libya’s eastern front, taking towns may be easy for Col. Muammar Qaddafi – but holding them is something else again.

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