In These New Times

A new paradigm for a post-imperial world

Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale

Posted by seumasach on February 8, 2020

The appearance of Valentina Zharkova’s thesis in Nature magazine lays down the gauntlet to the warmists and their leading theorist Michael Mann- he of the famous hockey stick who is in danger of becoming a habitual loser of court cases against opponents who have accused him of fraud. Zharkova has created a model for cycles of sunspot activity and the sun’s irradiance based on the suns behaviour as an electric dynamo which appears to correlate with historically recorded sunspot measurements and carbon 14 traces in tree rings. Thus , her model fits perfectly the historically documented Maunder Minimum 1645-1715. It also predicts a new minimum from this tear, 2020 and her theory is therefore soon to be put to the test. Mann regards the sun’s activity as being negligible regarding climate and denies that the Maunder Minimum was a period of exceptional cold- which seems to leave him standing on very thin ice.


24th June , 2019


Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicate that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019–2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one. On the other hand, a reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that since the Maunder minimum there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar irradiance (TSI) by a value of about 1–1.5 Wm−2 closely correlated with an increase of the baseline (average) terrestrial temperature. In order to understand these two opposite trends, we calculated the double dynamo summary curve of magnetic field variations backward one hundred thousand years allowing us to confirm strong oscillations of solar activity in regular (11 year) and recently reported grand (350–400 year) solar cycles caused by actions of the double solar dynamo. In addition, oscillations of the baseline (zero-line) of magnetic field with a period of 1950 ± 95 years (a super-grand cycle) are discovered by applying a running averaging filter to suppress large-scale oscillations of 11 year cycles. Latest minimum of the baseline oscillations is found to coincide with the grand solar minimum (the Maunder minimum) occurred before the current super-grand cycle start. Since then the baseline magnitude became slowly increasing towards its maximum at 2600 to be followed by its decrease and minimum at ~3700. These oscillations of the baseline solar magnetic field are found associated with a long-term solar inertial motion about the barycenter of the solar system and closely linked to an increase of solar irradiance and terrestrial temperature in the past two centuries. This trend is anticipated to continue in the next six centuries that can lead to a further natural increase of the terrestrial temperature by more than 2.5 °C by 2600.

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