In These New Times

“In an interview with London’s Guardian on Saturday, Gul[Turkish President] said: “I don’t think you can control all the world from one center. There are big nations. There are huge populations. There is unbelievable economic development in some parts of the world. So what we have to do is, instead of unilateral actions, act all together, make common decisions and have consultations with the world. A new world order … should emerge.””

Sana Abdallah

Middle East Times

19th August, 2008

AMMAN — Arab leaders are closely and quietly watching the unfolding military conflict between Russia and Georgia, while considering its political repercussions on the global scene and potential impact on the volatile Middle East. The Arab street, meanwhile, is openly backing a resurgent Russia and hopes to see the end of a Washington-centered unipolar world.

Arab governments, whether U.S. allies or not, have been very cautious by refraining to comment or appearing to take sides in the new conflict in the Caucuses, especially since it has turned into a political standoff between former Cold War antagonists Moscow and Washington.

As NATO foreign ministers were holding a crisis meeting Tuesday in Brussels after deciding that the 26 powerful nation group “cannot continue with business as usual” with Russia, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that Syrian President Bashar Assad will visit Moscow on Wednesday.

Remarkably, the official Syrian news agency only reported that Assad would visit Moscow at the invitation of President Dmitry Medvedev, without specifying the date.

While some analysts commented that Assad — as the president of a former Soviet ally and the “leader of the [anti-Western] rejectionist bloc” — might jump on the Russian bandwagon, others doubted that Damascus would do so at such a time when it is seeking to come out of the cold and end its isolation.

Middle East experts say that Syria is now in a political transitional stage and is not about to throw away its recent political gains in terms of its rapprochement with France, the current holder of the European Union presidency, and its overtures to be invited back into Washington’s good books.

Assad, whose country has this year revived peace negotiations with Israel, albeit indirectly with Turkish mediation, has on several occasions called for U.S. involvement in the peace process in order for it to succeed.

The Syrian president predicted, however, that this was unlikely to happen before the U.S. elections and George W. Bush administration’s term expires in January.

Arab diplomats say that Assad is aware that no matter what moves he makes to please the White House, including his announcement to recognize Lebanon’s sovereignty by establishing diplomatic ties for the first time, Syrian-U.S. rapprochement was unlikely under the Bush administration.

One diplomat told the Middle East Times the Syrian leader would not, however, risk wrecking a potential rapprochement with post-Bush America by taking a high risk position of supporting Russia in its clash with Georgia, and by proxy, the United States.

The source said, on condition of anonymity, he believed that Assad’s two-day visit that starts Wednesday was more likely related to boosting bilateral relations; and that a resurgent strong Russia is valuable for Damascus, which has for long been shunned by the West.

Meanwhile, U.S.-allied countries, or the so-called “moderate Arab states,” have tacitly decided it is safer not to take sides in the Georgia conflict, especially since they have their own crises to deal with and don’t want to see the impact of war in the Caucuses spill over into the region and further complicate existing problems.

Analysts say these Arab states, such as Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf countries, Egypt and Jordan, cannot support the American position and back Georgia when Tbilisi has exceptionally close ties to Israel.

Ever since Russian tanks rolled into South Ossetia in the former Soviet republic on Aug. 8, the Arab media has repeatedly pointed out that Georgia’s defense minister, Davit Kezerashvili, holds Israeli citizenship, and that much of the country’s military equipment and training have come from the Jewish state.

To express support for Georgia, therefore, would be an implicit support for Israel, a gamble that the Arab regimes do not particularly want to take when public anti-Israeli and anti-U.S. sentiments are running since the American-led invasion and occupation of Iraq.

On the other hand, if these governments express sympathy for Russia, they risk upsetting their American allies.

The safest thing to do, observers note, is probably to say as little as possible.

But if the Arab governments are lying as low as possible, the Arab media and commentators are not holding back. They are backing Russia in this conflict, with many seeing Moscow’s refusal to heed U.S. demands in Georgia as the return of the Russian bear to the global political scene; as one cartoon depicted in Jordan’s independent Al-Ghad daily on Tuesday.

Many columns, opinions and analyses have been written over the past 10 days speculating about the beginning of the end of a unipolar world dominated by the United States since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and expressing a strong desire for the return to a balance of power where American force alone would no longer determine the fate of the Middle East and their Arab causes.

Many analysts concur that the great support in the Arab street for Russia may not be so much out of love for Moscow, but more out of hatred for U.S. policies, especially under the current administration.

Even Turkish President Abdullah Gul, whose country is emerging as a key regional power, recently said the conflict in Georgia shows the United States could no longer shape global politics on its own and should start sharing power with other countries.

In an interview with London’s Guardian on Saturday, Gul said: “I don’t think you can control all the world from one center. There are big nations. There are huge populations. There is unbelievable economic development in some parts of the world. So what we have to do is, instead of unilateral actions, act all together, make common decisions and have consultations with the world. A new world order … should emerge.”

Oraib Rintawi, head of the Amman-based Al-Quds Center for Political Studies in Amman, cautions those who expect to witness the imminent arrival of a new world order. It is premature, he says, to think that the Georgia conflict heralds the return of Russia as a superpower and the revival of the Cold War.

“For the Arabs, it’s wishful thinking that this is the end of a unipolar world,” he told the Middle East Times. “As for the Israelis, they are exaggerating the resurgence of Russian power, more than the Arabs are, out of fear that this scenario will strengthen Iran and some of their Arab enemies.”