When dealing with Western intelligence sources it is necessary to separate the wheat of a grudging realism from the chaff of hubris, self-righteousness, unconscious irony and sheer stupidity. The latter render this article amusing, even hilarious, but it does have a serious core. A little translation is required to arrive at that core.
Thus the paragraph beginning “Russia would fully comply with the September Minsk agreement on Eastern Ukraine” can be translated as follows:
While continuing to pretend that Russia is behind the Ukraine crisis rather than ourselves we must reward Russia by calling her to do what she has been trying to do all along: stabilize the situation through the Minsk agreement. Kiev on the other hand must stop destabilizing the situation.
The paragraph beginning “NATO would continue to strengthen its deterrent posture in Eastern Europe to hedge against increased risk to its members.” translates as:
In order to placate our imperial outposts in Eastern Europe and prevent the collapse of NATO we must make some token deployments there.
The paragraph beginning “As part of a broader deal, Ukraine would have to recognize publicly that it is not currently prepared for NATO membership.” translates:
Ukraine will never be part of NATO!
The paragraph beginning “Russia would have to accept a closer Ukrainian relationship with the European Union—as well as deepen its own.” translates:
We need a trilateral EU-Russia-Ukraine agreement- the same agreement we torpedoed, along with our European stooges, when we launched this crisis.
The paragraph beginning “The West would have to make a firmer commitment to supporting internal reforms in Ukraine.” translates:
We must get the Europeans to bailout Ukraine
“Reviving the Group of 8, NATO-Russia Council, and other channels as part of a comprehensive deal would help. So would high level E.U.-Eurasian Union meetings.”
This is an astonishing statement which requires no translation!
RAND
December, 2014
The ruble’s dramatic decline threatens to plunge Russia into a full-scale economic crisis. President Vladimir Putin has attempted to minimize the difficulties and deflect blame toward the West, but the problem is serious and no one is to blame but Mr. Putin himself. His efforts to destabilize Ukraine have brought painful sanctions upon Russia, reinforced its dependence on oil, and isolated its economy.
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