Posted by seumasach on September 5, 2016
5th September, 2016
For some time now people have been portraying the EU referendum as a model of democracy. In his resignation speech, for example, David Cameron said that “the country has taken part in a giant democratic exercise, perhaps the biggest in our history”, a view that was echoed by Andrew Marr, who described the referendum as “this country’s single biggest democratic act in modern times”.
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Posted by seumasach on September 5, 2016
Paul De Grauwe
5th September, 2016
What should the EU’s priorities be in negotiations with the UK over Brexit? Paul De Grauwe writes that the EU should offer the UK two options: either following a Norwegian style model, or leaving entirely and negotiating a free trade agreement in the same way as other nations such as the United States and Canada. He argues that offering any concessions outside of these two options would risk fatally weakening the EU and should be avoided at all costs.
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Posted by seumasach on September 4, 2016
At first clash with reality the Brexit agenda will simply disintegrate- this is just the beginning. Britain is not a “great trading nation” but a great debtor nation. Any path which leads us into conflict with our major creditors, investors and suppliers is simply madness.
4th September, 2016
The Japanese government letter setting out its Brexit demands is deeply troubling to the UK since it is clear Japanese companies want Theresa May to negotiate a deal that leaves Britain not just in the EU customs union, and single market, but also retains a free flow of workers between the EU and the UK.
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Posted by seumasach on September 4, 2016
4th September, 2016
European economies will be thrown into “great turmoil” if the UK and EU cannot agree on a deal for Brexit that includes an element of free movement of labour, the Japanese government has warned.
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Posted by seumasach on August 31, 2016
31st August, 2016
Germany’s EU Commissioner has expressed doubts over whether the UK will actually leave the European Union, saying he would not “place any major bets on Brexit“.
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Posted by seumasach on August 29, 2016
Posted in brexit crisis | Tagged: brexit fiasco, Tory party split | Leave a Comment »
Posted by seumasach on August 29, 2016
A senior Conservative told the paper: “There’s a tussle going on here. The chief culprit is the chancellor.
“He has taken the position that there are no red lines, that you’ve got to stay part of the market and it doesn’t matter what you give way on. Hammond is operating as a blocking mechanism.”
Soon the divisions in the Labour Party will pale in comparison with those in the Tory Party. Hammond’s position is de facto “remain”. Remaining in the single market means remaining in the EU or possibly the EEA. The latter option is really quite pointless since it is merely a kind of downgraded membership. Hammond’s goal will be to split the Brexit camp and neutralise it: this is all too easy since they lack any coherent programme. As soon as a negotiation plan becomes an imperative the enormity of the Brexit fiasco will be there for all to see. As so often throughout history the worst thing that can happen to an oppositional movement is that they are put into power. Soon they will long for the old days of endless complaining and finger-pointing and, it has to be said, lying about the EU without any need for an alternative geopolitical vision.
Britain will retain access to single market and curb migration under plans considered by Theresa May
28th Auigust, 2016
Britain will retain access to the single market for financial sector and the car industry while curbing migration under plans being considered by Theresa May.
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Posted by seumasach on August 28, 2016
“The UK was seen as one of the strongest supporters of TTIP in the EU, so its departure following the Brexit vote would remove one of the US’s closest allies in the talks.”
Brexit is accelerating the uncoupling of Europe and the USA and the emergence of an independent Europe. In this sense, Brexit has been entirely salutary. Contrary to the myths pedalled by the Brexit camp, Britain has exerted great influence inside Europe- but it has been largely negative. If Britain now seeks a trade deal with the USA they will be in weak bargaining position and if it any ways resembles TTIP that will render a trade deal with Europe even more difficult than it would be anyway. In trying to negotiate trade deals with conflicting blocks our dilemma is worryingly reminiscent of that of Ukraine. Ukraine’s interests lay with the Eurasian free trade area but her “identity” pushed her towards the chimera of a deal with the EU.
28th August, 2016
The free trade negotiations between the European Union and the United States have failed, but “nobody is really admitting it”, Germany’s Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel has said.
Posted in Battle for Europe, brexit crisis | Tagged: Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) | Leave a Comment »
Posted by seumasach on August 23, 2016
“At the moment, however, the Sino-British “golden era” in relations, ushered in by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Cameron last fall, looks like in shambles. Faced with a choice between America and China, May could indeed think that the tested relationship with Washington remains “more special” than the blossoming one with Beijing.”
22nd August, 2016
While British Prime Minister Theresa May probably may like to take a leaf out of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s book, she is no stateswoman like her counterpart nor is Britain comparable to Germany in geopolitical terms. As Merkel effectively engages China and Sino-German trade turnover grows, Beijing sees Germany as the locomotive that pulls the EU economic and political trains. On the other hand, post-Brexit Britain, faced with a choice between America and China, may finally opt for the tested relationship with Washington.
Posted in brexit crisis, Containing China | Tagged: Chinese soft power | Leave a Comment »
Posted by seumasach on August 22, 2016
It may be that something will happen this autumn to distract attention from the travails of the hopelessly divided Brexit camp, something like a financial crash. This could put the whole process on the back-burner much to the relief of Johnson & co who simply don’t know what they are doing, just as millions of Brits simply didn’t know what they were voting for in practice. Failing this deus ex machine the divisions within the camp will be there for all to see rendering the necessary pre-article 50 agreement on a brexit plan impossible.
21st August, 2016
When Boris Johnson was working for the Daily Telegraph in Brussels in the early 1990s, rival British correspondents dreaded midnight calls from their news desks in London. Sonia Purnell, Johnson’s biographer, who worked with him at the time, recalls that Boris’s stories about the curvature of bananas, the shape of cucumbers and other EU absurdities were known as “duvet blasters”. Despairing reporters were ordered out of bed to write follow-ups. “The stories were almost always wrong but they would still blast everyone’s duvets,” says Purnell. For the young Johnson, it was good journalistic fun.
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Posted by seumasach on August 21, 2016
It is not the Remain camp which is stalling Brexit so much as the Brexit camp itself. They are yet to come up with a program for Brexit. They did not do so in the course of the referendum campaign apart from vagaries about trading with the rest of the world, except China as it turns out. They will never come up with a program for the simple reason that there are no good options and no options at all that they can agree on. Without agreement on a future framework for Britain article 50 will not be triggered. The brexiteers have dedicated entire lifetimes to reaching this point and they just don’t know what to do.
21st August, 2016
Iain Duncan Smith has urged Theresa May to crack on with Britain’s divorce from the European Union as he accused Remain supporters of trying to delay the process.
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In These New Times 