In These New Times

Gazeta Wyborcza

27th August, 2009

The signals that the generals in the Pentagon are sending are absolutely clear: as far as missile defence is concerned, the current US administration is searching for other solutions than the previously bases in Poland ad the Czech Republic,’ Riki Ellison, chairman of the Missile Defence Advocacy Alliance, a Washington-based lobby group.

Mr Ellison took part last week in an industry conference on missile defence where the Pentagon talked about its plans to defence industry executives. Gazeta reported that Boeing had proposed there – instead of a base in Poland – mobile interceptor missile (anti-missile) launchers.

During the conference, Mr Ellison stresses, the ‘generals never mentioned the original plan concerning Poland and the Czech Republic.’ Instead of a plan, negotiated by the George W. Bush administration and the Polish and Czech governments, of locating anti-missile installations in those two countries, the Barack Obama administration prefers installing interceptor missiles on ships, as well as on bases in Israel, Turkey, and perhaps somewhere in the Balkans.

Shortly after Mr Obama took over, the White House started a strategic review of the missile defence project. In theory, the review hasn’t yet been completed but Mr Ellison believes that in fact the decision has already been made. A credible source in the Congress says the same: ‘The administration has been sounding out for a couple of weeks now how the Congress will react when the plans for building the missile defence in Poland and the Czech Republic are dumped.’

‘The debate within the Obama administration is nearing an end,’ adds a well-known Washington expert on defence matters and an adviser to the current administration.

The outcome of this debate, it has been increasingly clear, will see the Polish and Czech option abandoned. Riki Ellison at the MDAA believes that the main reason for this change of strategy is that the ‘new administration pays more attention to Russia’s arguments.’ Other sources that Gazeta has talked to, although they agree this is an important factor, say that the key issue is that of the project’s price tag and Mr Obama’s key aides’ doubts about whether the system would really work.

‘Obama’s people believe that many global problems will be more easily solved together with Moscow,’ says Mr Ellison. ‘It’s about priorities. For many Democrats, disarmament is a priority and to reach a new strategic weapons reduction agreement with Russia, they are prepared to sacrifice a lot. Which doesn’t mean that they are soft and naive,’ explains the lobbyist.

‘The Obama administration will negotiate firmly with the Russians, trying to bargain as much as possible in return for its concessions,’ says Mr Ellison.

But a new approach to both Russia and missile defence is a fact.

Gen Kevin Chilton, head of the US Strategic Command, had a lengthy speech at the conference about how difficult to swallow for Moscow a missile defence base in Poland would be. It is clear that Russia’s feelings are being taken into account in Washington.

According to Gazeta’s sources, the US government will announce the conclusions of the strategic review only when it has prepared Warsaw and Prague for the change of plans and secured maximum possible concessions from Moscow.

Gazeta asked the State Department for permission to interview one of the high-ranking diplomats about Polish-US relations but was refused – until the strategic review of the missile defence project is completed.

Negotiations with the George W. Bush administration were started by the PiS administration and completed, after many perturbations, by the incumbent one. The missile defence was to protect Nato allies against missiles from countries like North Korea or Iran.

Marcin Wawrzyńczak