In These New Times

LONDON (AFP) – Israel probably judges it has up to 10 days to complete its Gaza operation, but a military victory over Hamas is not possible, defence analysis group Jane’s said Monday.

The security situation in southern Israel and the Gaza Strip will not be improved by Israel’s assault on the Islamist group, said David Hartwell, Jane’s country risk Middle East analyst.

Fighting will likely continue until Israel feels it has completed its objectives, because the United States is unlikely to put pressure on its ally before Barack Obama replaces George W. Bush as president on January 20, he said.

“Israel probably judges that it has another week to 10 days to complete its operations in Gaza, given the time it has taken for international pressure to reach a point where engagement is deemed necessary,” said Hartwell.

“Nevertheless, it will need to show tangible results to justify the expense of lives and money to the Israeli public.”

“Thus, while calls for a truce will grow louder, until Israel feels it has achieved its objectives or the United States begins to voice public concern at the diplomatic cost of the operation – an unlikely prospect in the immediate term given the situation with the Bush administration – the fighting in Gaza will continue.”

Israeli troops tightened their military grip on Gaza with new air and ground attacks that claimed more than 20 lives on Monday, while the Israeli government rejected European-led calls for an immediate ceasefire.

More than 555 Palestinians have been killed since Israel’s Operation Cast Lead began on December 27.

“Hamas may well bow to Egyptian pressure and accept the need for a truce, but Israel’s attitude is such at the moment that this will only be granted when it feels its military job is done,” Hartwell said.

“With a military victory for Israel over Hamas not possible, the security situation in southern Israel and Gaza will not improve, even in the longer term.”