In These New Times

The bogus “war on terror” is near its end; we are seeing a return to pre 9/11 State procedures

POSTED JULY 29, 3:08 PM
A new Pentagon sponsored Rand Corporation report concludes U.S. efforts to undermine al Qaeda have been, largely, unsuccessful and recommends a new strategy against the group.
In looking at how other terrorist groups have ended, the RAND study found that most terrorist groups end either because they join the political process, or because local police and intelligence efforts arrest or kill key members. Police and intelligence agencies, rather than the military, should be the tip of the spear against al Qaida in most of the world, and the United States should abandon the use of the phrase “war on terrorism,” researchers concluded.

“The United States cannot conduct an effective long-term counterterrorism campaign against al Qaida or other terrorist groups without understanding how terrorist groups end,” said Seth Jones, the study’s lead author and a political scientist at RAND, a nonprofit research organization. “In most cases, military force isn’t the best instrument.”

The study recommends the United States should adopt a two-front strategy: rely on policing and intelligence work to root out the terrorist leaders in Europe, North America, Asia and the Middle East, and involve military force — though not necessarily the U.S. military — when insurgencies are involved.

The United States also should avoid the use of the term, “war on terror,” and replace it with the term “counterterrorism.” Nearly every U.S. ally, including the United Kingdom and Australia, has stopped using “war on terror,” and Jones said it’s more than a mere matter of semantics.

“The term we use to describe our strategy toward terrorists is important, because it affects what kinds of forces you use,” Jones said. “Terrorists should be perceived and described as criminals, not holy warriors, and our analysis suggests that there is no battlefield solution to terrorism.”

The Rand group studied nearly 650 terrorist organizations that have functioned over the last 40 years. In a little over 40% of the cases, the terrorist groups transitioned to political entities. Another 40% of the terrorist organizations were eliminated by police or intelligence services either apprehending or killing key leaders.

Military force was effective in eliminating the terrorist groups In only 7% of the cases. The report does note military force can be useful in squashing large based, well armed, well organized insurgencies.

It’s been pointed out today that the Rand report concurs with John Kerry’s 2004 assertion that counterterrorism efforts should be approached as law enforcement and intelligence issues rather than big military interventions. President Bush, in the midst of his re-election campaign, jumped all over Kerry for what Bush called Kerry’s naivete and unwillingness to take the tough, smart stand he and his administration had taken in Afghanistan and Iraq.

I hope John Kerry gets some small measure of satisfaction knowing a Pentagon sponsored study now agrees with his 4 year old position.