In These New Times

Subsequent events and revelations, by Thierry Meyssan and others, have, of course, shown this analysis to be completely wrong. This reflects both the effectiveness of propaganda at the time, notably that of Al Jazeera, and the appearance that the events in Libya were simply a response to the Arab Spring. We know now that the intervention in Libya was planned in advance of the Egyptian events suggesting the West may also have instigated those events too, a conclusion which certainly seemed most unlikely at the time. The West seems to have completely misread the Arab street and their various manipulations have not achieved their desired ends. Claims that Gaddafi attacked civilians also appear to false.

Cailean Bochanan

18th March, 2011

“We are concerned about the effects on freedom movements in north Africa and the Arab world. We admired the jasmine revolution in Tunisia … but we want these freedom movements to be strengthened, not weakened.”

Germany’s foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle, explaining his opposition to military intervention in Libya

These words by German foreign minister Westerwelle are striking. He implies that the UN backed mission is directed against the Arab revolution itself. I have to agree. At this moment ferocious repression is being directed against the people in Bahrain and Yemen without so much as a murmur coming from Washington or London. Are we really to believe that the latter are intent on promoting democracy in the Arab world? Of course, they are not. And yet the Libyan opposition appears to have agreed to, even insisted on, this measure. I say”appears” because what is going on in Libya is far from clear, the fog of war has never been denser and I find it difficult to believe that Libyan revolutionaries really believe they can find their own emancipation in the sickening spectacle of a NATO bombing of their own country. If they have done it can only be in despair before the murderous violence of Gaddafi’s counter attack.

And yet the military situation is far from hopeless: Misustrata has not fallen, nor has Ajdabya. Even the fall of Brega has not been confirmed and Gaddafi is nowhere near Benghazi. Many reports have noted the innacuracy of Gaddafi’s airforce: his main asset has been artillery and rocket launchers. The first phase of the revolt saw enthusiatic youth seeming to take all before them. Then came Gaddafi’s terrifying counter attack. Now we seem to entering a third phase in which the revolution’s military seems to be adapting, becoming more organised and learning to counter a strategy based largely on bombing. Reports of further defections and the capture of government tanks and aircraft give justification to General Younis’s generally optimistic take on the situation. Gaddafi’s strategy couldn’t be better tailored to further undermine the credibility of his own regime. Through shock and awe he has won immediate gains but ultimately weakened himself. Of course, the random bombing of civilians is intolerable: it is reminiscent of US military strategy. And so the resistance has called in the Americans to give Gaddafi a bit of his own/their own medicine.
It has been suggested that the Americans have deliberately left things too late, saving their own credility but leaving Gaddafi in control. This analysis makes sense on the basis of endless media reports of the imminent collapse of the revolution. But those reports don’t seem credible and many come straight from Gaddafi’s statements. No doubt the Americans are in a better position to asses the military balance. Have they just seen Gaddafi throw in all his forces and fail to gain decisive advantage? Have they seen clearly, as I have  thought I could just make out through the the mists of misinformation, the tide begin to turn in favour of the revolution with its massive popular support. If he was on the verge of victory and the UN resolution just passed he would make a last push to win before the NATO mission  became active. He has not done so because he is not on the verge of victory- he is still struggling to take towns whose fall was reported as fact days ago.
If this is the case then the revolution has blundered in supporting NATO intervention – NATO being now, de facto, the military wing of the UN.
The US/UK does not support the democratic revolution in the Arab world and it has the sense to see that the revolt in Libya and the revolt striking at the very heart of the empire in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are one and the same. They do not support one and repress the others. They repress them all but with different methods depending on the situation. Repression here is a principle, a way of showing that revolution cannot succeed. They cannot be seen to support Gaddafi although they may well have done so covertly, perhaps through Israel as widely rumoured. Still less can they attack the revolution head on. The bombing option opens up the least bad scenario: the failed state option.
For a revolution to succeed it must take charge of an existing state apparatus and shape for its own use. Even Lenin who, as a good marxist, believed in smashing the state apparatus had to do this, he had to salvage what he could of the state bureaucracy and army because what he faced was anarchy. In the ongoing Egyptian revolution the people, first of all, won the support of the army which became the bulwark of the revolution. It seeks to destroy only the secret service of Mubarak and the special instruments of that regime’s power. All else will remain to be modified under the all pervasive power of a people who have awoken to shape their own destiny. It may not satisfy the anarchic instincts of the western intelligentsia but it will be a constructive revolution of creativity and beauty.
Gaddafi had already taken the precaution of fragmenting the army precluding the scenario we have seen in Egypt. NATO will finish this particular job. Their mandate is to do whatever is necessary to protect civilians. This is open ended. They will bomb communications, infrastructure of all kinds, roads, airports, anything which could be construed as assisting Gaddafi’s forces. Most of all they will annihilate what’s left of the army. This is the kind of stuff they do best: scorched earth. They will destroy the foundations of the Libyan state and then present it to the revolution. And to cap it all I don’t see them turning down another opportunity to contaminate a country through deployment of depleted uranium weapons. Is this is really what the revolution requested? They have truly partaken of the poisoned chalice.